Sunday, April 24, 2011

Box Office Bulletin: "Rio" holds off "Madea"...

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, and other sources:

Another strong weekend at the box office saw animated and family fare reap the benefits of a heavily attended Easter weekend. "Rio" retained the #1 spot in estimated box office figures, edging out Tyler Perry's latest Madea film, while "Hop" saw an expected Easter bump to cross the $100 million mark in gross earnings.

"Rio" dropped a modest 32% in estimated figures, moving its domestic 10-day box office gross to $81 million. Worldwide the film continues to have massive success, earning more than $202 million in 17 days. While tracking seems to indicate that "Fast Five", the fifth film in the "Fast & The Furious" franchise will debut strong in the April 29 box office weekend, "Rio" should hold on for a strong third weekend. No doubt about it, "Rio" is a bonafide smash.

The other animated feature in wide release, "Hop" saw an uptick of 16% in the Easter weekend, the holiday that the film is centered around. If estimates hold, "Hop" will become the third film to surpass $100 million so far in 2011, joining "Rango" and "Just Go With It" in achieving that milestone. Expectations are that "Hop" will freefall, perhaps as early as next weekend, with "Rio" delivering strong numbers and two other family films, "Hoodwinked Too..." and "Prom" attempting to pull dollars from the family audience.

NEW OPENINGS:

"Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family" was not the director's best opening but performed on pace with many of his other offerings. "...Family", the sixth film to feature Perry's grandmotherly Madea character, opened on more screens than any other Perry feature (2,288) and pulled in an estimated $25.7 million. Tyler Perry's films typically have two strong weekends and then decline rapidly in attendance, so this opening could foresee a total gross of approximately $50-$55 million when all is said and done.

Robert Pattinson and Reese Witherspoon's "Water For Elephants" performed better than anticipated, landing in third place with approximately $17.5 million on a budget of $38 million. Curiously, it was Witherspoon's name who came first in the marketing of the film, perhaps because Pattinson's last non-"Twilight" feature, "Remember Me" was a huge box office disappointment. Although Pattinson's performance was the focal point of the film's mixed reviews, the film reportedly played well overall with audiences and should land in the high-$40 to mid $50 million range. Certainly an acceptable return theatrically for 20th Century Fox's anticipations.

DisneyNature's third consecutive Easter film opening, "African Cats", landed a solid $6.4 million estimated opening, placing it behind "Earth" and just ahead of "Oceans" in terms of success with the DisneyNature brand of documentaries. A total gross around $20 million should be expected for the well-received film, narrated by Samuel L. Jackson.

A look at some notable indies and more after the cut!

ALSO OF NOTE

The heavily attended Easter weekend saw some Top 10 mainstays suffer only nominal to small drop offs, with one distinct exception.

"Source Code" continued to take slow and modest declines and only fell 18.5% in total estimated receipts. Elsewhere, "Insidious", "Soul Surfer", and "Hanna" lost just a quarter of their previous weekend's audience. All four films have been consistent draws and in all instances have eclipsed their budgets, utilizing strong word-of-mouth to stay relevant and in lots of locations.

"Scream 4" took an expected slide in its second weekend, earning an approximate $7.2 million. Although the film had a pretty sturdy week overall and gave rise to muted optimism for a decent second weekend, the film plummeted more than 61%. With a dropoff of more than 60%, the estimated final tally of $50-$55 million seems like it may be hard to hit, causing this to be an even further disappointment for all involved.

In smaller releases, the much talked about documentary, "POM Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold" had a solid start, earning $135k at 18 locations. The film, directed by Morgan Spurlock, was entirely funded by companies via product placement and analyzes the influence corporations have on today's entertainmen. Sony Pictures Classics looks to expand the film over the next few weeks. Spurlock's last film, 2008's "Where In The World Is Osama Bin Laden?" earned $148k on more than 100 locations in its opening weekend, so Spurlock has made a comeback of sorts with this opening. Spurlock's debut, "Super Size Me", earned over $11 million for comparisons.

The Canadian entry and nominee for Best Foreign Language Film at this past year's Oscar ceremony, "Incendies", finally hit the U.S. box office and had an impressive $54k opening at just 3 locations. The Sony Pictures Classics approach seems to mirror the rollout given to the Oscar winner in the same category, Denmark's "In A Better World". That film has earned approximately $300k in 4 weeks of release thus far.

Adding 13 locations and drawing some big buzz from an appearance on the Oprah Winfrey show, Tom Shadyac's introspective documentary "I Am" improved more than 570% and earned $141k, raising its total haul to more than $567k in 10 weeks.

Overall, the weekend box office surged to an estimated $124 million grossed by the Top 12 films, a gain of an additional 6.1% from the previous weekend, and earning the highest tally amongst the Top 12 since "Unknown" edged out "Gnomeo and Juliet" to win 2011's President's Day weekend.

THE TOP 10 (Estimates, with Actuals reported on Monday)

1. "Rio" (20th Century Fox), $26.8 million, 81.3 million, 2 wks
2. "Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family" (Lionsgate), $25.8 million, NEW
3. "Water For Elephants" (20th Century Fox), $17.5 million, NEW
4. "Hop" (Universal), $12.5 million, $100.5 million, 4 wks
5. "Scream 4" (Weinstein Co./Dimension), $7.2 million, $31.2 million, 2 wks
6. "African Cats" (Buena Vista), $6.4 million, NEW
7. "Soul Surfer" (TriStar/FilmDistrict), $5.6 million, $28.7 million, 3 wks
8. "Insidious" (FilmDistrict), $5.4 million, $44.2 million, 4 wks
9. "Hanna" (Focus), $5.3 million, $31.7 million, 3 wks
10. "Source Code" (Summit), $5.1 million, $44.7 million, 4 wks

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