Taking a blind stab at next year's Oscar predictions...
It seems like the first thing we Oscar pundits do once the big night is over is begin to fret over next year. It’s a funny thing really, look at anyone’s predictions a year out and they’re bound to be horrifically wrong. For my part, just look at the 10 films I had predicted early on for the 2010 Oscars: Black Swan, Blue Valentine, The Fighter, Get Low, The Kids Are All Right, Love and Other Drugs, Shanghai, Shutter Island, The Social Network, and The Tree of Life. I wound up 4 out of 10, which isn’t bad, but none were the winner. I even managed to pick two that didn’t even come out (though one is going to be a big contender this year) in 2010! Obviously, it’s a fool’s errand, but what kind of prognosticator would I be if I didn’t press on anyhow? As such, I humbly present to you how I see the Oscar nominations going in a few of the big categories, with suitably clueless and half-hearted commentary to boot. This will be funny to look at this time next year, I promise. They always do…
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Moneyball
One Day
The Tree of Life
War Horse
We Bought a Zoo
The next 10: The Beautiful and the Damned, Certified Copy, A Dangerous Method, Hugo Cabret, Like Crazy, On The Road, The Rum Diary, Shame, Take This Waltz, and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
Best Director-
Cameron Crowe- We Bought a Zoo
Stephen Daldry- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Clint Eastwood- J. Edgar
Terrence Malick- The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg- War Horse
Next 5: George Clooney (The Ides of March), David Cronenberg (A Dangergous Method), David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), and Martin Scorsese (Hugo Cabret).
Matt Damon- We Bought A Zoo
Leonardo DiCaprio- J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling- The Ides of March
Brad Pitt- Moneyball
Anton Yelchin- Like Crazy
Next 5: Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary), Michael Fassbender (Shame), Paul Giamatti (Win Win), Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), and Jim Sturgess (One Day)
Anne Hathaway- One Day
Rooney Mara- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Emma Stone- The Help
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams- Meek’s Cutoff
The Next 5: Juliette Binoche (Certified Copy), Saoirse Ronan (Hanna), Charlize Theron (Young Adult), Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre), and Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower).
Paul Giamatti- The Ides of March
Armie Hammer- J. Edgar
Tom Hanks- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Michael Parks- Red State
Seth Rogen- Take This Waltz
The Next 5: George Clooney (The Ides of March), Paul Dano (Meek’s Cutoff), Colin Firth (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Moneyball), and David Strathairn (The Whistleblower).
Jessica Chastain- The Tree of Life
Judy Greer- The Descendants
Chloe Moretz- Hugo Cabret
Carey Mulligan- Shame
Evan Rachel Wood- The Ides of March
The Next 5: Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Zoe Kazan (Meek’s Cutoff), Rachel McAdams (Midnight in Paris), Vanessa Redgrave (The Whistleblower), and Julia Roberts (Larry Crowne).
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close- Eric Roth
The Ides of March- (George Clooney and Grant Heslov)
Moneyball- Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian
War Horse- Richard Curtis and Lee Hall
We Bought A Zoo- Cameron Crowe
The Next 5: The Descendants (Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, and Jim Rash), The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Steven Zaillian), The Help (Tate Taylor), One Day (David Nicholls), and The Rum Diary (Bruce Robinson).
J. Edgar (Dustin Lance Black)
Like Crazy (Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones)
Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
Super 8 (J.J. Abrams)
The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick)
The Next 5: Larry Crowne (Tom Hanks and Nia Vardalos), Looper (Rian Johnson), Red State (Kevin Smith), Shame (Steve McQueen and Abi Morgan), and Young Adult (Diablo Cody).
-Thoughts?
This will be fascinating to see next year, and I look forward to hearing about what films and performances I missed...
ReplyDeleteAren't J. Edgar and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close supposed to be released next year? That's why I'm not predicting (read: wildly guessing) them.
ReplyDeleteA few things I noticed about your predictions:
-You're listing Michelle Williams for Meek's Cutoff, which is a bold prediction considering her Baity with a capital B role in My Week with Marilyn this year.
-Michael Parks for Red State? Eh, even if he's worthy, I'm pretty sure the chances for a nomination is 0%.
-I forgot about Fassbender in Shame. Hmm, now I'm wondering if that's going to be his big Oscar role instead of A Dangerous Method...
-You have Gary Oldman listed as a Best Actor possibility for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, but federal law prohibits him from being recognized by the Academy. Well, how else do you explain him never being nominated before?
Anyway, my just as hilarious-in-retrospect predictions are on the Message Board now.
Isn't The Conspirator releasing this year? If so, how would you rate Robin Wright and Redford's chances. This looks like a really Oscar friendly subject.
ReplyDeleteI certainly wouldn't scoff at any year in advance picks but regardless, these are quite good. See mine in Hamer's thread on the forum.
ReplyDeleteRobert- They might be, but they strike me as 4th quarter additions to this year's race. With it being this early, I figured I'd play the guessing game and try to anticipate surprise releases.
ReplyDeleteIt could go either way with Williams...I went with the less showy role, for now at least.
I highly doubt Parks can get in, since there won't be a push by SModcast Pictures, but I could see him pop up during the precursors, and frankly...I just like Michael Parks and at this stage, I like being different.
It could be for Fassbender...if you think of it as a "disease" movie, then it could be good for him.
Oldman's had bad luck, so I figured let's see if this is finally his year...
Jim- Much obliged.
ReplyDeleteAnupam- The festival reviews were mixed, but yes...The Conspirator has a shot.
ReplyDeleteThere's not going to be a traditional campaign for Michael Parks, but since Smith is a huge Twitter guy (and AMPAS member), I think we'll be hearing of suggestions for him. However, whether or not Parks can get in will depend entirely on the strength of the film critically, and whether or not people are willing to give a Kevin Smith film an Oscar nomination.
ReplyDeleteIndeed...I'd say it's as close to a pipe dream as things get, but I wouldn't put past some precursor mentions to show up in the winter.
ReplyDeleteAlso, when I see the film tomorrow night at the premiere, I'll have a better idea of just how long a shot it'll be...
ReplyDeleteGlenn Close will be nominated for Albert Knobbs. Mark my words. In it she plays a woman living her life as a man in the victorian era, who later gets arrested. It is baity and Close is overdue, a five time nominee, She has played this role before off broadway and won an obie. Also she is cor writing the script and producing. She will challenge Streep in my opinion and Sasha Stone has already wrote an article about it. Google Glenn Close albert knobbs to see a photo of her stunning transformation into a man. Joey put her in best actress, possibly as a winner. How exciting would a race between the Astonishing Meryl Streep and the Brilliant Glenn Close be?
ReplyDeleteAlso I think once My Week with Marilyn come out Michelle Williams will go leading for that and Supporting for Meek's Cutoff. Additionally, I think Blanchett could get in for Hanna in Supporting if it is a hit.
This early, being that definitive is a fool's errand.
ReplyDeleteShe could be a big contender, but it's so early, she's got the same chance as anyone else.
If there is another actress that's a lock is Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs. The play and performance in the 80's got raves and Close has to play a convincing man for many years. Plus she'll be looked at like a comeback.
ReplyDeleteAnd also... I just finished reading Machine Gun Preacher and that's a great story. True at that as well, with a fine script and Oscar nominated director in Marc Forster. He's got his actors Oscar nominated in the past. I think Tilda Swinton for We Neeed To Talk About Kevin could pull off a lead nod. With John C. Reilly in support. Viggo in a Dangerous Method and Cronenberg in direction. Rampart could get a nod for Ben Foster ( from his Messenger snub ) and what if Giovanni Ribisi knocks his David Koresh out of the park in Waco ?
ReplyDeleteAll are definite possibilities for sure...
ReplyDeleteAlso as a quick mention...now that I've seen Red State, I'm pleased I went out on a whim with Michael Parks. He's probably the biggest long shot I've ever predicted, but he deserves it, so I'll stick with that prediction until reality sets in late this year.
ReplyDeleteSeth Rogen instead of Seymour Hoffman? Lol. No Mortensen for A dangerous method? Warrior? Atlas Shrugged? The Conspirator? Nice to see your predictions.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, they all have the same chance of recognition.
ReplyDeleteMock my predictions if you must, but Atlas Shrugged has no realistic chance at anything, and The Conspirator was met with more or less indifference at Toronto, so I wouldn't bet on those either.
Relax, I said it was nice to see your predictions. But I did find Rogen being chosen over Hoffman funny.
ReplyDeleteNo worries, just pointing out how it's folly make any definitive statements this early.
ReplyDeleteAnd on the Rogen/Hoffman thing...think about it: would you have believed this time last year that Jesse Eisenberg would be a nominee over Robert Duvall?
ReplyDeleteI saw Get Low way before the national public did and I thought Duvall was good not great. So I wasn't surpised he didn't get an Oscar nod. Nowhere near his Apostle performance, which btw earned him a Oscar nod.
ReplyDeleteProbably the closest locks among any category will be for the best actress. The Academy will look at Close as a comeback in grand fashion from a critically popular play. That charatcer she has to be, pretended to be a man for 20 some odd years. She's transformed for the role.
And I'm real bummmed Water For Elephants is getting an April release. Waltz looks great, the art direction top notch and the cinematography is close to breathtaking. I'm almost done with the book now and I personally am glued to it. If it's a good adaptation and it holds up over time, I hope the Academy wob't hold the release date against the film.
When it debuted at Toronto in 09, the buzz had him a heavy Oscar favorite, quality aside.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm aware he was nominated for his performance in The Apostle.
There are no locks in March, I assure you.
If the film is good, it has a chance...
Go to the betting booths and bet on Streep and Close gettting Oscar nominated. You heard it here on March 6, 2011. :)
ReplyDeleteI don't gamble, but either way, there's no such thing as a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteGo ahead on don't believe me...those two are in like Flynn ! You know how they mostly think and their criteria. In the acting categories they are borderline predictable. Plus both roles are acted in the method, something revered and by HIGHLY respected actresses on top of it to boot...
ReplyDeleteHaha, I wouldn't have. But it would've been possible. He did a good job in The Squid and the whale. Rogen doesn't even take himself seriously for the academy to recognize his work.
ReplyDeleteOh by the by... there have been many sure things early on. People get their actor/actresses predictions correct in the spring, before ever seeing a film. I'm not saying they pick the winners but many have picked 3 out of 5 nominees by June.
ReplyDeleteWe're still in the winter...a far cry from the spring. Let's talk in June, not February/March.
ReplyDelete