My favorite awards show each year is the Independent Spirit Awards, and as always, I take it upon myself to write up this preview/predictions article to try and make some sense of what is always a unique awards show (obviously it's on the blog this year, but that's just due to time constraints and a small technical difficulty). It doesn’t usually have any bearing on Oscar, but it’s one of the hardest precursors (if you can call it that) to accurately predict, so it’s interesting to do this and then compare come Saturday night. As for how the awards themselves might go, well…let’s jump right in. ‘Winter’s Bone’ led the nominations with 7, followed by ‘The Kids Are All Right’ with 5, so keep an eye on those. 'Black Swan' picked up 4 nods, and ‘127 Hours' didn’t do shabby either, so don’t count them out. This is really a closer race than usual in a lot of categories, but there’s still some method to the prediction madness, so here we go:The nominees are 127 Hours, Black Swan, Greenberg, The Kids Are All Right, and Winter’s Bone. I think it’s safe to say that Greenberg is out of it (sadly), with 127 Hours and Black Swan looming as long shot spoilers (more so Black Swan). This brings the race down to The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone, and with the latter doing well earlier this season at the Gotham Awards, I’m going to take a cue from them and say that the big prize of the night is going to go to it.
Will Win: Winter’s Bone
Might Win: The Kids Are All Right
Should Win: Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Blue Valentine
The rest after the jump...
Best Director-
The nominees are Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, Danny Boyle for 127 Hours, Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right, Debra Granik for Winter’s Bone, and John Cameron Mitchell for Rabbit Hole. I can’t help but see Aronofsky as the front runner here, but Boyle and maybe Granik loom large. In the end, regardless of what wins Best Feature, I still see Aronofsky and his masterful direction being rewarded.
Will Win: Darren Aronofsky
Might Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky
Should have been nominated: Mark Romanek (Never Let Me Go)
Best Screenplay-
The nominees are Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right, Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini for Winter’s Bone, Nicole Holofcner for Please Give, David Lindsay-Abaire for Rabbit Hole, and Todd Solondz for Life During Wartime. The two front runners are The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone, though something tells me that any of the 5 could pull this one out. Looking to spread the love, I see Blumberg and Cholodenko winning, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Granik and Rosellini did instead.
Will Win: Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)
Might Win: Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini (Winter’s Bone)
Should Win: Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)
Should have been nominated: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, and Cami Delavigne (Blue Valentine)
The nominees here are Everything Strange and New, Get Low, Night Catches Us, The Last Exorcism, and Tiny Furniture. While Get Low seems like the most high profile pick, the Spirit Awards have never gone that route, so I think that Tiny Furniture looks like their cup of tea (though I’d love it if they went in a different direction and chose The Last Exorcism…I won’t hold my breath though). Get Low is still in it, but I think this race is pretty wrapped up (watch me be wrong now).
Will Win: Tiny Furniture
Might Win: Get Low
Should Win: The Last Exorcism
Should have been nominated: Solitary Man
Best First Screenplay-
The nominees here are Diane Bell for Obselidia, Lena Dunham for Tiny Furniture, Nik Fackler for Lovely, Still, Bob Glaudini for Jack Goes Boating, and Dana Adam Shapiro and Evan M. Wiener for Monogamy. This seems like the easiest call of the night…barring an upset by Jack Goes Boating, this is Dunham’s for Tiny Furniture.
Will Win: Lena Dunham (Tiny Furniture)
Might Win: Bob Glaudini (Jack Goes Boating)
Should Win: Lena Dunham (Tiny Furniture)
Should have been nominated: John Wells (The Company Men)
The nominees for this (literally) low budget category are Daddy Longlegs, Lbs., Lovers of Hate, Obselidia, and The Exploding Girl. Daddy Longlegs has gotten more recognition this season than you’d think, so it’s the obvious favorite here. Obselidia could come from behind to win, but I don’t see it (and I’d love to see The Exploding Girl pull it out, but alas).
Will Win: Daddy Longlegs
Might Win: Obselidia
Should Win: The Exploding Girl
Should have been nominated: Breaking Upwards
The nominees are Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right, Greta Gerwig for Greenberg, Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone, Natalie Portman for Black Swan, and Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine. Much like the Oscars, this could come down to Bening vs. Portman, but I think the young ladies will rule the day here, so Portman’s competition is more Gerwig, Lawrence, or Williams. Gerwig is a happy fantasy, and Williams didn’t see her film get the support many expected it to, so this comes down to Lawrence or Portman for me. I still see Natalie Portman winning in the end, but this should be closer than many expect it to be.
Will Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Might Win: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Should Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Should have been nominated: Zoe Kazan (The Exploding Girl)
Best Male Lead-
The nominees here are Ronald Bronstein for Daddy Longlegs, Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, James Franco for 127 Hours, John C. Reilly for Cyrus, and Ben Stiller for Greenberg. Franco has to be the favorite here, but I really think there could be an upset by Bronstein. I’m not confident enough to predict it, but watch out…it might happen.
Will Win: James Franco (127 Hours)
Might Win: Ronald Bronstein (Daddy Longlegs)
Should Win: Ben Stiller (Greenberg)
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
The nominees are Ashley Bell for The Last Exorcism, Dale Dickey for Winter’s Bone, Allison Janney for Life During Wartime, Daphne Rubin-Vega for Jack Goes Boating, and Naomi Watts for Mother and Child. There doesn’t seem to be a real favorite here, unless you think Watts will win based on reputation alone. I’d love to see Bell win for her great turn in The Last Exorcism, but this looks like Dickey’s award.
Will Win: Dale Dickey (Winter’s Bone)
Might Win: Naomi Watts (Mother and Child)
Should Win: Ashley Bell (The Last Exorcism)
Should have been nominated: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
The nominees are John Hawkes for Winter’s Bone, Samuel L. Jackson for Mother and Child, Bill Murray for Get Low, John Ortiz for Jack Goes Boating, and Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right. To me, Hawkes and Ruffalo are the odds on favorites, and it’s really a coin flip to me. Ruffalo would be the more congratulatory winner, so I’ll go out on a limb and pick him.
Will Win: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Might Win: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Should have been nominated: Zach Galifianakis (It’s Kind of a Funny Story)
Best Cinematography-
The nominees here are Adam Kimmel for Never Let Me Go, Matthew Libatique for Black Swan, Jody Lee Lipes for Tiny Furniture, Michael McDonough for Winter’s Bone, and Harris Savides for Greenberg. All are strong contenders, but while I’d love to see Kimmel or Savides win, this is likely a slam dunk for Libatique, with McDonough lurking as a spoiler if Winter’s Bone goes on a tear and up and sweeps.
Will Win: Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
Might Win: Michael McDonough (Winter’s Bone)
Should Win: Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
Should have been nominated: Andrij Parekh (Blue Valentine)
Best Documentary-
The nominees are Exit Through the Gift Shop, Marwencol, Restrepo, Sweetgrass, and Thunder Soul. I’d like to think Restrepo can pull an upset, but let’s face it, this is Banksy’s award. Exit Through the Gift Shop should win here, in all likelihood.
Will Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Might Win: Restrepo
Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Should have been nominated: The Tillman Story
Best Foreign Film-
The nominees here are Kisses, Mademoiselle Chambon, Of Gods and Men, The King’s Speech, and Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives. There could be some kickback against The King’s Speech (the front runner), and that could benefit Of Gods and Men, but I doubt it. Don’t bet against The King’s Speech here.
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Might Win: Of Gods and Men
Should Win: The King’s Speech
Should have been nominated: Dogtooth
-Thoughts?
It's an incredibly hard show to predict, so we'll see how I do tonight...
ReplyDeleteI'll also be live-blogging the show, so stay tuned...
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