So just how bad a hit will the box office take due to Hurricane Irene?

About as bad as can be expected (with many theaters near me in New York closing shop this weekend), according to The Hollywood Reporter:

Hurricane Irene could result in box office losses of as much as $30 million for the weekend as movie-going comes to a standstill up and down the East Coast.

Domestic box office revenues for the frame were on track to reach $120 million, but the massive storm could reduce that number by as much as 25%. By Friday afternoon, the news was grim. “Its horrendous,” one distribution executive noted.

Across the board, films were posting lower than expected results, including three new titles—the Luc Besson-produced action pic Colombiana, starring Zoe Saldana and distributed by TriStar, the Weinstein Co.’s R-rated ensemble comedy Our Idiot Brother headlining Paul Rudd, Elizabeth Banks, Zooey Deschanel and Emily Mortimer, and the Guillermo del Toro-produced horror movie Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, distributed by FilmDistrict and starring Katie Holmes and Guy Pearce.

Why CinemaScore is so important to the box office...

...according to The Hollywood Reporter, at least:

Every Friday night, foot soldiers for the market research firm CinemaScore descend upon theaters in five or six cities across North America. Bearing small survey cards, they ask moviegoers to assign a letter grade to what they have seen.

Back in Hollywood, studio executives anxiously await the results, which come in about 11 p.m. PT and serve as a fairly reliable indicator of whether a film will fly or fizzle. "CinemaScore is definitely one of the tools we use to evaluate playability," says Chris Aronson, senior vp domestic distribution at 20th Century Fox, whose Rise of the Planet of the Apes is benefiting from an A- CinemaScore.

Surprisingly, given the escalating cost of the theater experience, consumers are fairly forgiving. A majority of films receive a grade in the A- to B- range. C grades are enough to keep most filmmakers awake (though Rango, released in March, did fine after it received a C+), and an F has been given to only five films since Ed Mintz founded the Las Vegas-based firm 29 years ago. In that time, only 52 films have received an A+, including The Help and seven Oscar best picture winners:Gandhi, Driving Miss Daisy, Dances With Wolves, Schindler's List, Forrest Gump, Titanic andThe King's Speech.

And with notable exceptions (Cinderella Man?), an A+ CinemaScore signals a long, prosperous theatrical run. Help felt the glow right away, opening to a better-than-expected $35.9 million. Says Dave Hollis, executive vp distribution at Disney, which is distributing the film, "The movie is now set up for a great run, with more and more people exposed to it because of the power of word-of-mouth."

Circuit Round-Up, 07/31

* Last week, I previewed some rather interesting films opening on the last weekend of July.

* Joey Magidson recommended yet another acclaimed sci-fi thriller for his DVD Picks of the Week, and gives us his favorite Ryan Gosling performances.

* Mike Ward reported a surprising drop in the attendance for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 for last weekend.

* Joey also argued that – as a director – Ben Affleck’s star may shine brighter over time than Clint Eastwood’s.

* John H. Foote listed films from the Aughts that he feels are under-appreciated.

* Finally, the results of the ACCA 2001 are in, and I’m proud to say that the Awards Circuit community made some unexpected and delightfully idiosyncratic choices. Well done!

Box Office Actuals (7/22/11 - 7/24/11): "Captain America" Does Voldemort's Work...

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, Deadline, and other sources:

Audiences came out bigger than expected for the latest superhero to arrive on the big screen as "Captain America: The First Avenger" delivered a strong $65.1 million opening, giving it a huge victory over a rapidly declining "Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2". Paramount reps were obviously ecstatic with the reception afforded to "Captain America" and the film opened almost even with May's "Thor", which started with $65.7 million.

With the arrival of "Captain America", everything has lined up nicely for May 4, 2012, when the eagerly anticipated "Avengers" film, featuring Iron Man, The Hulk, Thor, Captain America, and other Marvel comic book icons finally sees its realization on the big screen. After some initial alarmingly negative reviews, "Captain America" saw its Tomatometer rise to 74% - on par with the reception critics levied upon "Iron Man 2" (74%) and "Thor" (77%).

Audiences were quite taken with the film and its throwback look and feel, grading it an A- via CinemaScore. The film has yet to make its mark overseas yet, grossing $2.8 million in Italy, the only overseas location receiving the film. Paramount and Marvel are rechristening the film internationally as "The First Avenger".

All in all, its yet another success for Marvel and Paramount, as Chris Evans lines up nicely alongside his counterparts, setting the stage for one of the most eagerly anticipated advance release dates of recent memory.

A "Harry Potter" breakdown (perhaps literally), Justin and Mila receive a warm welcome, and Indian cinema makes some headlines...more analysis, The Weekend Breakdown and The Top 40 after the cut!

Harry Potter is now the top-grossing franchise of all time!

Box Office Mojo has the details on this financial landmark:

On Wednesday, Harry Potter edged out Star Wars to become the top-grossing franchise of all time. The eight Potter movies have accumulated $2.223 billion, compared to $2.218 billion for Star Wars. They're also the only two franchises to have crossed the $2 billion mark, though James Bond and Batman would join the party when adjusted for ticket price inflation.

Star Wars still trumps Potter in terms of estimated attendance, more than doubling the wizard wunderkind. It even maintains most of that margin when its re-releases are factored out.

Sarah Palin Doc 'Undefeated' No Winner at Weekend Box Office

Uh-Duh
According to The Wrap:


Sarah Palin documentary "The Undefeated" got off to a soft start in a lightly promoted 10-theater box-office debut this weekend, grossing somewhere between $65,000-$75,000, according to estimates confirmed by distributor ARC Entertainment.

Still, ARC Entertainment isn't admitting defeat, declaring the film's limited opening "strong" while pointing to several sold-out performances.

"We are extremely pleased with the audience reaction, which has been over-the-top enthusiastic and very passionate, including standing ovations at most screenings," said ARC CEO Trevor Drinkwater. "“We expect word-of-mouth to keep ticket sales strong and we will definitely expand the film to a wider national audience. With merely three weeks of preparation and a virtually non-existent traditional advertising spend, the film did exceptionally well.”

Written and directed by conservative filmmaker Stephen Bannon, and featuring commentary from the right-wing gliterati, the film details Palin's rise from simple hockey mom to defeated vice presidential candidate and mid-term gubernatorial dropout. The narrative, of course, tells the story in the happy way the "mainstream media" purportedly refuses to.

"The demographic is clearly the Heartland," Drinkwater told TheWrap, refering to a list of opening locations that includes Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Phoenix, Orlando, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Orange, Calif.

Harry Potter shatters the midnight screening record!

Not a huge surprise, but still noteworthy. The Hollywood Reporter has the scoop:

Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 cast a powerful spell at the midnight box office, grossing a massive $43.5 million, the best showing of all time.

The previous crown holder was The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which earned $30 million in midnight shows.

Deathly Hallows has already grossed north of $100 million at the worldwide box office, and the weekend is yet to come. The pic began rolling out internationally on Wednesday, earning $43.6 million from 26 countries. Numbers for Thursday weren’t immediately available.

At the domestic box office, Deathly Hallows 2 played in 3,800 midnight runs. Friday, the pic moves into a total of 4,300 theaters, including 3,000 3D runs.

Box Office Actuals (7/1/11 - 7/4/11) - "Transformers" Demolishes Everything In Its Path...

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, Deadline, and other sources:

"Transformers: Dark Of The Moon" decimated the Independence Day weekend box office records, delivering a massive $115.9 million 4-day weekend, which raised it's 6-day cumulative gross to an impressive $180.7 million in domestic figures. Even more impressive is the worldwide haul of the third film in Michael Bay's extraordinarily successful "Transformers" franchise, with figures climbing up to $418 million thus far.

As thrilled as Paramount is with those figures, this third "Transformers" is tracking rather significantly behind the sequel "...Revenge Of The Fallen", which had grossed more than $214 domestic in its first 6 days. When factoring in the initial film in the series in 2007, Michael Bay's "Transformers" films have grossed just under $2 billion worldwide. That figure will be passed imminently.

With most entities aggregating 4-day weekend totals, the 3-day figures on a typical Friday-Sunday analysis would still provide "Transformers" with the largest 3-day Independence Day opening ever. Banking $97.9 million over those three days eclipsed 2004's "Spider-Man 2" and its $88.2 million start. Incidentally, the original "Transformers" ranks third on the list with its $70.5 beginning in 2007.

As analysts dug through the numbers, opinions were largely in line with the theory that this was a staggering opening for the film on many fronts. Although reviews were better here than with the dismal second offering, critics weren't exactly standing up for the film either (36% via Rotten Tomatoes), but Bay has always succeeded despite, or in spite of, what the critics say about his work. And clearly, "Transformers" is bullet-proof entertainment.

In addition to the Independence Day 3-day and 4-day weekend records, "Transformers: Dark Of The Moon" scored the largest opening for IMAX exhibitions globally, amassing more than $22 million from those ticket receipts. Michael Bay's begging fans to see it in 3-D, also paid off with 60% of its ticket sales coming from that presentation. Recent 3-D offerings (Cars 2, Pirates...On Stranger Tides) were bringing in approximately 40% of its opening numbers from 3-D showings.

With CinemaScore showing audiences ranking the film with a solid "A", "Transformers" has one more guaranteed huge weekend coming before the long-awaited and much anticipated finale to the biggest grossing film franchise of all time, "Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows - Part II" comes to a close on July 15.

Paramount also made mention that with "Super 8" moving north of $100 million in receipts, they are the only studio who can boast of five consecutive $100 million grossing films (Transformers, Super 8, Thor, Kung Fu Panda 2, and Rango).

Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts fail to make the grade, Bollywood makes a splash, and a Disney superstar struggles to open a movie once again. All of this and the Top 40 after the cut!

Bridesmaids is now Judd Apatow's highest grossing film...

...and is about to break some more box office related records, according to The Hollywood Reporter:

With hits like The 40 Year Old Virgin, Knocked Up and Superbad, producer-director Judd Apatow has spent the past decade as Hollywood's king of guy humor. But the Apatow-produced, female-driven comedy Bridesmaids is on track to pass Knocked Up on Wednesday night as the highest-grossing domestic movie of Apatow's career.

That’s not all. Projections show that by Sunday or Monday, Universal's Bridesmaids -- directed by Paul Feig -- will supplant Sex and the City as the top R-rated female comedy of all time domestically.

Through Tuesday, Bridesmaids' North America gross was $148.1 million, just behind Knocked Up, which cumed $148.8 million in 2007, and Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, which earned $148.2 million domestically in 2006. Barring unforeseen interference from the Transformers sequel, Bridesmaids should pass both those movies Wednesday night.

Apatow directed and produced Knocked Up and produced Talladega Nights. Both were bigger hits overseas, with Knocked Up still serving as Apatow's top worldwide grosser at $219 million. Bridesmaids has made $21 million internationally but is still rolling out in many territories, where it is off to a phenomenal start.

In the U.S., Bridesmaids was released May 13 and is still playing in a little fewer than 2,000 theaters. Sex and the City grossed $153 million in 2008 but had the advantage of being based on a popular HBO series, which contributed to a whopping $57 million opening weekend. Bridesmaids, on the other hand, opened at a strong-but-not-blockbuster $26 million yet has continued to lure audiences based on strong word-of-mouth.

Bridesmaids also will become Universal’s top R-rated comedy of all time, replacing Knocked Up. The film stars Kristin Wiig -- who co-wrote the script with Annie Mumolo -- Maya Rudolph, Rose Byrne, Melissa McCarthy, Ellie Kemper and Wendi McLendon-Covey.

-Joey's Two Cents: It couldn't have happened to a better film...thoughts?

Could Midnight in Paris end up as Woody Allen's highest grossing film ever?

The Hollywood Reporter breaks down its chances:

Midnight in Paris now has the potential to become Woody Allen’s top-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, as well as Sony Pictures Classics’ biggest title after Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

Either Wednesday night or Thursday, Midnight in Paris will eclipse the $23.2 million grossed each by Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point and become Allen’s best performing movie since Hannah and Her Sisters 25 years ago. Hannah earned $40.1 million domestically, a career record for Allen.

Not only that, box office observers believe Midnight in Paris -- with a domestic cume of $22.7 million through Tuesday -- will ultimately surpass Hannah and Her Sisters.

Midnight in Paris, with a diverse cast including Owen Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Marion Cotillard and Kathy Bates, is one of those rare specialty films that expands beyond the art house crowd to general audiences. The movie opened in only six theaters May 20 to score one of the best location averages of all time ($99,834) at the domestic box office. Now, it’s playing in more than 1,000 theaters.

In the film, Wilson’s character discovers an alternate reality while in Paris with his wife. Observers believe there are several reasons the film is resonating.

For one, the movie embraces Paris in a way that appeals to anyone who has either visited the city or wants to visit. And Wilson plays the sort of “everyman” character that moviegoers tend to see in more mainstream films, versus in art house titles (or in an Allen’s film). It also helps that critics across the country -- and not just in New York -- have given Midnight in Paris great reviews.

Could female driven comedies be making a comeback?

Perhaps, according to The Hollywood Reporter:

It might have been the funniest "walk of shame" moment in cinematic history: Kristen Wiig inBridesmaids, climbing over that 8-foot gate after a night of meaningless sex with hunky Jon Hamm. As far as metaphors go, it might represent the watershed moment when female-centric comedy broke down the Hollywood gates. On May 16, the Monday morning after Bridesmaidsopened to an unexpected $26.2 million, with an audience that was 67 percent female, you could hear the edict bellowed at studio staff meetings everywhere: "Where's our Bridesmaids?!"

Could Super 8 be heading to an only modest opening at the Box Office?

Here's what The Hollywood Reporter has to say:

Trying to debunk buzz in Hollywood that pre-release tracking is soft for J.J. Abrams' Super 8, Paramount says the $50 million-budgeted movie doesn't need a big opening weekend because it cost far less than a big studio tentpole.

Paramount has its job cut out for it in managing expectations.

Super 8, opening in theaters Friday, is one of the summer's more high-profile projects because of Abrams and Steven Spielberg, who produced the sci-fi alien pic, set in the late 1970s in a small Ohio town.

However, the studio has refrained from showing the creature at the center of the film in trailers or its ad campaign, hoping to build interest in the film among those curious to see its secret revealed. A similar strategy worked well with the Abrams-produced Cloverfield in 2008, but some are questioning whether more should have been shown with Super 8.

Has Cannes been a boon to a few films at the Box Office?

Apparently so, according to The Hollywood Reporter:

Did winning the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival do the trick for Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life?

Over the weekend, the Brad Pitt-Sean Penn starrer debuted in the U.S. to a per screen average of $93,320—a record for a Fox Searchlight title. Searchlight’s previous best was $80,000 for Black Swan.

Opening Friday in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles, Tree of Life grossed an estimated $372,920 through Sunday. Including Monday--the Memorial Day holiday--the moody drama grossed an estimated $488,920 for a per screen average of $122,230.

Searchlight senior vice president for distribution Sheila DeLocahe said the film’s performance was all the more impressive considering its running time is two hours and eighteen minutes. And Searchlight relied almost entirely on publicity to generate interest in the drama, versus an expensive media campaign.

“Winning the Palme d’Or really pushed it forward,” said DeLoache, adding that Tree of Life has become a must-see event title.

The last American film to walk away with the top honor was Michael Moore’s documentary Fahrenheit 9/11 seven years ago.

Tree of Life isn’t the only film feeling the Cannes glow. Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris, the festival’s opening night film, continued to do strong business in its second weekend at the domestic box office.

"The Hangover Part II" - Third Biggest Thursday Opening Of All Time!!!

Courtesy of Box Office Mojo:

On Thursday, The Hangover Part II blasted off with an estimated $31.66 million at 3,615 locations, marking the highest-grossing opening day ever for a live-action comedy. That also nearly doubled the $16.7-million Friday start of the first Hangover.

Among all Thursday grosses, The Hangover Part II ranked third behind Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith ($50 million) and The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5 million), although it would slot fourth adjusted for ticket-price inflation, behind Attack of the Clones. The last three pre-Memorial Day weekend Thursday debuts are Sex And The City 2 ($14.2 million), Terminator Salvation ($13.4 million) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($25.0 million).

Among all 2011 opening days so far, The Hangover Part II ranked third, behind Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ($34.9 million) and Fast Five ($34.4 million), but those were Friday debuts. Included in The Hangover Part II's opening day was its $10.4 million midnight launch at 2,600 locations, which was the biggest of of the year and more than doubled Pirates' $4.7 million.

Kung Fu Panda 2 was overshadowed by the Wolf Pack, grossing an estimated $5.8 million at 3,925 locations. The disparity between the two movies will shrink over the weekend as only ten percent of K-12 schools were out on Thursday. The animated comedy is the first major family movie to debut on a Thursday outside of the holiday season, so there is no apples-to-apples comparison to gauge its performance, although Shrek 2 grabbed $9.2 million in its first Thursday while Shrek The Third bagged $5.9 million. The first Kung Fu Panda opened on a Friday and made $20.3 million.

Box Office Bulletin: "Fast Five" Obliterates the Competition...

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, Deadline, and other sources:

The Summer Movie Season, which typically kicks off in the first weekend of May, hit early with a staggering and stunning record-setting opening for "Fast Five", the fifth film in "The Fast & The Furious" franchise. Hauling in a likely overestimated but still incredible $83.6 million, "Fast Five" not only had the biggest opening ever for the series, but delivered the largest April opening weekend of all time, breaking its own record-setting $71 million "Fast and Furious" entry in April 2009. People knew the film would deliver the biggest opening weekend of the year, but this debut, even when revised actuals drop the number a bit on Monday, far exceeded most expectations. Speculation turned from the worry of diminished box office returns to a tone of optimism that perhaps "Fast Five" could kickstart a wave of films which will have wide-ranging commercial appeal. We shall see.

While "Rio", "Rango", and "Hop" had delivered the biggest openings so far in 2011, "Fast Five" more than doubled the best of those openings and the film already ranks as the 7th biggest grossing film of 2011. "Fast Five"could reach $100 million in total receipts by next weekend when "Fast Five" lines up next to the eagerly anticipated "Thor". And what if "Fast Five" can hold off and outrun "Thor"? Stay tuned...

NEW OPENINGS:

The brutal reality of the other weekend's openings is that no one truly cared about any of the other offerings. The estimated per screen averages for Disney's "Prom" and The Weinstein Company's "Hoodwinked Too! Hood Vs. Evil" were on par with films that have played for 4 or 5 weeks. Although in Disney's case, the poor performance may not be too disappointing in the long run.

"Prom", which was advertised as a non-musical "High School Musical" style film earned $5 million with a dismal $1,832 per screen average. Dismal that is, unless you are budgeted at $8 million, in which case the film may be profitable by the weekend. Nikki Finke at Deadline reports however that this is still going to be recognized as a major disappointment for Disney and raises questions as to why the film was not just morphed into a 4th "HSM" feature. Whether the film is a bomb or not can be left open to interpretation, but Disney execs are spinning this as a success. With the rush to DVD and probable multiple airings on the Disney Channel by the fall, "Prom" may not be as terrible a performer as many are speculating.

There really is no spin that can be leveraged at The Weinstein Company's "Hoodwinked Too! Hood Vs. Evil" however. Opening to a paltry $4.1 million and $1,653 per screen average at 2,505 locations, "Hoodwinked Too!" delivered the worst 3-D opening of all time for a wide release. Budgeted at $30 million, this ill-conceived sequel will likely lose money and provide a reversal of fortunes when compared to the surprising $51 million haul of 2005's "Hoodwinked". Nikki Finke shared an insider's Email on the film, which stated: "Between Blue Valentine, Company Of Men, Scream 4, and this film, they are starting to give back all the money they made on The King's Speech." Ouch.

Although it opened at a scant 875 locations, the comic book adaptation, "Dylan Dog: Dead Of Night" was a non-starter for OmniLab Media and Freestyle Releasing. Not screened for critics ahead of its release, this comedic/horror hybrid starring former "Superman", Brandon Routh, arrived with little in the way of promotion. Grossing $885k, fans of the supernatural horror series were reportedly not pleased at the film being more comedy and less chills and thrills. Italian audiences, where the comic originated from, were also less than thrilled last month when the film opened there.

Other notable trends and happenings after the cut!

What is the most profitable film of 2011 so far?

The answer is a real shocker to the industry, according to The Hollywood Reporter:

They say lightning doesn't strike twice. Don't tell that to the Paranormal Activity team of Jason Blum, Oren Peli and Steven Schneider, whose microbudgeted horror film Insidious is crossing the $50 million mark globally and is on to track to gross as much as $80 million or $90 million at the worldwide box office.

That would give the indie horror pic, made for under $1.5 million, the best cost-to-gross ratio of the year, a good measurement of profitability.

Insidious has already taken in $44.5 million in North America and roughly $4.5 million more in Russia and two smaller territories (final figures are still being determined). It now begins rolling out in a number of other foreign markets, beginning this weekend in the U.K. and Brazil. Based on its performance so far, those involved with the film say Insidious should reach $90 million globally, and probably more.

In terms of profitability, Insidious is the darling of 2011. The key players who backed the film stand to make millions, considering its nominal production budget. While it won't make the $193 million grossed by Paranormal at the global box office in 2009, no one is complaining.

"It shows that there is still a market for quality genre movies, and that it is possible to make film on a micro-budget," Blum tells THR.

For years, studios have tried in fits and starts to make genre movies at a nominal cost. But it's been a challenge. Paramount's microbudget division Insurge Pictures had great success earlier this year with Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, which cost $13 million to produce and has grossed $94.9 million worldwide. Paramount formed Insurge after the runaway success of Paranormal Activity, which Paramount distributed domestically.

Box Office Bulletin: "Rio" holds off "Madea"...

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, and other sources:

Another strong weekend at the box office saw animated and family fare reap the benefits of a heavily attended Easter weekend. "Rio" retained the #1 spot in estimated box office figures, edging out Tyler Perry's latest Madea film, while "Hop" saw an expected Easter bump to cross the $100 million mark in gross earnings.

"Rio" dropped a modest 32% in estimated figures, moving its domestic 10-day box office gross to $81 million. Worldwide the film continues to have massive success, earning more than $202 million in 17 days. While tracking seems to indicate that "Fast Five", the fifth film in the "Fast & The Furious" franchise will debut strong in the April 29 box office weekend, "Rio" should hold on for a strong third weekend. No doubt about it, "Rio" is a bonafide smash.

The other animated feature in wide release, "Hop" saw an uptick of 16% in the Easter weekend, the holiday that the film is centered around. If estimates hold, "Hop" will become the third film to surpass $100 million so far in 2011, joining "Rango" and "Just Go With It" in achieving that milestone. Expectations are that "Hop" will freefall, perhaps as early as next weekend, with "Rio" delivering strong numbers and two other family films, "Hoodwinked Too..." and "Prom" attempting to pull dollars from the family audience.

NEW OPENINGS:

"Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family" was not the director's best opening but performed on pace with many of his other offerings. "...Family", the sixth film to feature Perry's grandmotherly Madea character, opened on more screens than any other Perry feature (2,288) and pulled in an estimated $25.7 million. Tyler Perry's films typically have two strong weekends and then decline rapidly in attendance, so this opening could foresee a total gross of approximately $50-$55 million when all is said and done.

Robert Pattinson and Reese Witherspoon's "Water For Elephants" performed better than anticipated, landing in third place with approximately $17.5 million on a budget of $38 million. Curiously, it was Witherspoon's name who came first in the marketing of the film, perhaps because Pattinson's last non-"Twilight" feature, "Remember Me" was a huge box office disappointment. Although Pattinson's performance was the focal point of the film's mixed reviews, the film reportedly played well overall with audiences and should land in the high-$40 to mid $50 million range. Certainly an acceptable return theatrically for 20th Century Fox's anticipations.

DisneyNature's third consecutive Easter film opening, "African Cats", landed a solid $6.4 million estimated opening, placing it behind "Earth" and just ahead of "Oceans" in terms of success with the DisneyNature brand of documentaries. A total gross around $20 million should be expected for the well-received film, narrated by Samuel L. Jackson.

A look at some notable indies and more after the cut!

Did Kevin Smith already make his budget back with the Red State Roadshow Tour?

It certainly appears as such. In his latest post to The Red Statements (found here), he goes over the numbers (after a passage about how much Quentin Tarantino enjoyed the film) that the movie has made so far, and what it's got coming its way. Here's the relevant data from Kevin Smith himself:

Over the course of the 15 shows of the Red State USA Tour, we made almost one million dollars from ticket and merchandise sales. A few times, we had the highest per screen average in the country. We started out with a record-making show at Radio City Music Hall and went on to average 1100 people per screening. Had we booked ourselves into smaller houses, we could’ve SOLD OUT every show; but being in the larger houses cost us nothing extra.

And apparently, we managed to pull 1100 a night solely from our podcasts: when asked nightly if they heard about the show from a show at SModcast.com, an overwhelming 85/90% of the audience indicated yes (Jon swears it was 100% in Seattle). That bodes well for SIR.

You take what we made on the tour, you add that to the $1.5mil we’ve pulled in from foreign sales thus far (with a few big territories yet to sell). Add to that $3mil we’re on the verge of closing for all North American distribution rights excluding theatrical (which means VOD/HomeVideo/PayTV/Streaming).

The flick cost $5mil to make, but $4mil after the California tax incentive. One of the only things Jon and I promised the Red State investors in exchange for letting us handle American theatrical distribution ourselves was that their $4mil would be covered as soon as possible – something very few other production entities can promise or even offer. Invest a million dollars in almost any production, and you rarely if ever get your money back within five years, let alone the one year it’s looking like it’s gonna take for our guys to make their money back.

Add up all those figures above and you’ll notice our gains are higher than our spending. And without any dopey marketing figures to have to recoup, once we close the aforementioned deals (which Jonn Sloss & LawCo are working to close as we speak), simple math dictates Red State is in the black – long before any wide release. That’s music to the ears of any investor who only put up their money in September.

Ta-da!

Box Office Bulletin: "Rio" mutes a "Scream"

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, and other sources:

Branded as the comeback weekend for the middling North American box office, 20th Century Fox's "Rio" dominated the weekend, presaged by a huge international opening the weekend prior to its domestic release. "Rio", if numbers hold, will have the largest opening of 2011. With its approximate $40 million North American haul, coupled with $127 million already taken in across the water, "Rio" is the international breakout film of the year and could settle in for a long run at the top of the rankings. "Rio" looks to have virtually no competition for its dollar for the foreseeable future, as next week's "African Cats", and the following week's"Hoodwinked Too!" and "Prom" have a muted interest and/or limited audience at best.

NEW OPENINGS:

Landing in second place is The Weinstein Company and Dimension's joint release, "Scream 4". Projections were high for this franchise's return, which had earned nearly $300 million domestically and was making a much-hyped return to the big screen for the first time in more than 11 years. Message boards were alive, reviews were good-to-mixed, and interest resurfaced in the 3 previous slasher flicks. And then when it opened...no one came. Or at least to the anticipated levels the studio and analysts were expecting. "Scream 4" opened with an estimated $19.3 million and stands to finish in the mid-$50 million range when the film runs its course theatrically, more than $30 million less than "Scream 3"'s take. Reports show that audiences bailed on Saturday and Sunday and may have opted instead to check out another horror flick playing in another theater down the hall, but more on that in a moment.

On just 770 screens, Robert Redford's "The Conspirator" (Roadside Attractions) scored a Top 10 debut and one of the highest per-screen averages for the weekend. Earning $3.9 million with an older-skewing audience, this re-telling of the Abraham Lincoln assassination delivered an impressive cast and became Roadside's biggest opening weekend of all time. It will be interesting how Roadside handles this better-than-expected result, as "The Conspirator" needs only to earn a little less than $5 million going forward to become the studio's biggest grossing film (2007's "Bella" earned just over $8 million). The film could have legs and attendance grew over the weekend with some matinee showings selling out. Stay tuned...

One other notable opening at #14 is the long-simmering "Atlas Shrugged, Part I", an adaptation based on the writings of Tea Party-favorite Ayn Rand. Hollywood has always been interested in bringing Rand's writings to the big screen but it took indie Rocky Mountain Pictures, a studio known for releasing Christian-themed and inspirational fare, to make it a reality. Critics were less than kind to the film and it holds a 10% from Rotten Tomatoes at press time. The film has been a galvanizing entity within the Tea Party movement and on just 300 screens, the film scored an estimated $1.7 million, providing a slightly higher per-screen average than "The Conspirator" and virtually every other film in platform, medium, or wide release not named "Rio" or "Scream 4". The negative reviews were re-tweeted and shared via Tea Party supporters and were seen by some as a catalyst in drumming up impressive attendance numbers. Budgeted at $10 million, Parts II and III are reportedly ready if the film can draw enough money to support their being made.

ALSO OF NOTE

FilmDistrict's first two releases, the inspirational "Soul Surfer" and intense horror film, "Insidious" were quite impressive in their second and third weekends respectively. "Soul Surfer" dropped a mere 30% in its second weekend, a high retention of audience for an inspirational sports drama. But "Insidious", despite sliding to #7 overall, continues to hold strong, slipping a scant 27% and undoubtedly hampering "Scream 4"'s overall take. "Insidious" has earned nearly $36 million on its $1.5 million budget and remains a much buzzed-about and talked about film.

The twisty-turning romantic mystery/thriller, "The Double Hour", an Italian film released by Samuel Goldwyn Company, scored an impressive $15,400 per screen average in its two-screen opening.

Another highly anticipated foreign release from IFC Films, "The Princess of Montpensier", a historical period French film about a female aristocrat forced into an unwanted marriage while she carries on a passionate affair, scored a $7,800 per screen average on 4 screens.

The documentary, "Armadillo", discussed by our own Robert Hamer in his weekend preview, did not have its estimates reported.

Overall, the weekend box office surged to nearly $120 million grossed by the Top 12 films, a gain of 16.6% from the previous weekend, and earning the highest tally amongst the Top 12 since "Rango" opened on March 4.

THE TOP 10 (Estimates, with Actuals reported on Monday)

1. "Rio" (20th Century Fox), $40.0 million, NEW
2. "Scream 4" (Weinstein/Dimension), $19.3 million, NEW
3. "Hop" (Universal), $11.2 million, $82.6 million, 3 wks
4. "Soul Surfer" (TriStar/FilmDistrict), $7.4 million, $20.0 million, 2 wks
5. "Hanna" (Focus), $7.3 million, $23.3 million, 2 wks
6. "Arthur" (Warner Bros.), $6.9 million, $22.3 million, 2 wks
7. "Insidious" (FilmDistrict), $6.9 million, $36.0 million, 3 wks
8. "Source Code" (Summit), $6.3 million, $37.0 million, 3 wks
9. "The Conspirator" (Roadside), $3.9 million, NEW
10. "Your Highness" (Universal), $3.9 million, $16.0 million, 2 wks

Box Office Bulletin: A "Brand" established...

Via Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, and other sources:

It was great news and somewhat disappointing news for British comedic actor Russell Brand at the box office this weekend. His starring turn as the animated "E.B." in the family film "Hop" retained the #1 spot at the box office for a second weekend in a row. His lead performance in the remake of Dudley Moore's 1981 comedy, "Arthur", opened at #2. While "Hop" easily won the weekend, "Arthur" underperformed expectations and may slide to #3 when the actual figures are reported Monday afternoon. At this time, Brand stars in the Top 2 films in the country - an impressive feat not to be discounted.

NEW OPENINGS:

"Arthur" vastly underperformed the expectations Warner Bros. placed upon it. Tendering a $40 million budget, studio executives pegged "Arthur" to fall in the $18-$20 million range for its opening. This expectation matched our own Robert Hamer's prediction in his Weekend Openings column. Landing at an estimated $12.6 million take, that $40 million budget may be tough to achieve domestically, as word-of-mouth and reviews sour the interest. Brand will likely not suffer much from this professionally as he remains a star on the rise.

A look at the surprise breakout of "Hanna", a snubbing of "Your Highness", and a good showing for "Insidious", along with everything else from the weekend after the cut.