OK, I’ll say it: If the Oscars were held today (nearly two-thirds of the way through 2011) Woody Allen could have another Best Picture winner. Of course the 84th Academy Awards aren’t being held yet and we are still four and a half months away from the end of eligibility. But as I embark on the fall season beginning with the Venice + Telluride + Toronto film festivals it’s time to take a look at where things stand and where things are going. First up in this series of posts: Is there anything released so far in 2011 with a realistic chance to ultimately win Best Picture? Or at the very least earn a nomination? Remember, new rules say from 5 to 10 films could benominated, meaning each nominee can’t get there without receiving at least 300 first place votes in the nominating process. Conventional wisdom is that films released in the first 8 months of the year are at a tremendous disadvantage to those coming out in the fall and holiday season. Last year no eventual winner in the top 8 categories was released before October — and 7 of those winners came out on or after Thanksgiving. Then again some recent Best Pic winners like The Hurt Locker (2010) and Crash (2005) came from the first half of their respective years. Other classic Best Pic champs like Patton, The Godfather, The Silence Of The Lambs, Gladiator, Braveheart, and yes, Woody Allen’s first Best Picture, Annie Hall (1977), were all released in the first 5 months of their respective years so it would be foolish to downgrade the chances of movies we’ve already seen this year. Or would it? Indeed 4 of last time’s 10 Best Picture nominees were released in June and July.
But other than animated films like Rango and Rio there were no solid Best Pic possibilities until we hit the Cannes Film Festival in May. Slowly simmering Best Picture talk was sparked by the fest opener, Allen’s rapturously received Midnight In Paris and Terrence Malick’s Palme d’Or winner The Tree Of Life which both went on to later May domestic releases. The Allen film has become his most financially successful film ever and it will hit the $50 million benchmark this weekend. Its official Academy screening was packed to the rafters (“the best turnout I have seen in years”, according to one member) and was extremely well received. “I liked it but some members I know got mad at me because I didn’t love it,” another voter told me. ”I haven’t seen anything that’s gotten that kind of response.”
