Roger Ebert makes his Oscar picks!

Here you go:

Best Picture: On the day the Oscar nominations were announced, I made some quick guesses and toyed with the possibility that “True Grit” might sneak in. I've changed my mind and now agree with the conventional wisdom that “The King's Speech” will be the year's best picture winner. Still, “True Grit” or “The Social Network” could pull off an upset.

Actor in a leading role: Colin Firth for “The King's Speech.” Jeff Bridges is unlikely to win a second year in a row, and although James Franco did a heroic job under his (shall we say) constraints in “127 Hours,” Hollywood loves British history and often gives extra points to U.K. nominees.

Actress in a leading role: In the way that such matters are decided by currents wafting in the air, Natalie Portman has emerged as the consensus choice. She is very good in “Black Swan.” That's beside the point. Everyone is good in this category. But she gets to “act” the most, which to the academy, often means “act out in emotional displays.” She was required to do that by the logic of the role, which had Oscar written all over it.

Actor in a supporting role: Geoffrey Rush. Because it could be a “King's Speech” year. Christian Bale seems to have a good chance, but when a movie gets anointed, its aura shines on its other nominees, as if voters are thinking, “Well, if I voted for ‘The King's Speech,' doesn't that mean I keep voting for it?”

Actress in a supporting role: That tendency won't carry over to this category, however, because while Helena Bonham Carter as the king's wife was splendid, as she almost always is, the role wasn't showy. The academy has a way in this category of anointing a plucky young newcomer, and the winner will be Hailee Steinfeld, who in fact played the lead in “True Grit,” no matter what the academy thinks. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will split support for “The Fighter.”

Directing: Well, here I'm more or less forced to choose Tom Hooper of “The King's Speech” because he won the Directors Guild Award, and you know the mantra: The DGA winner wins the best director Oscar 90 percent of the time. Contrarian speculation would be risky.

International Film Music Critics Association Nominations

FILM SCORE OF THE YEAR
• THE GHOST WRITER, music by Alexandre Desplat
• HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, music by John Powell
• INCEPTION, music by Hans Zimmer
• THE KING’S SPEECH, music by Alexandre Desplat
• TRON: LEGACY, music by Daft Punk
FILM COMPOSER OF THE YEAR
• Alexandre Desplat
• Danny Elfman
• James Newton Howard
• John Powell
• Hans Zimmer
BREAKOUT COMPOSER OF THE YEAR
• Óscar Araujo
• Arnau Bataller
• Daft Punk
• Herbert Grönemeyer
• Nuno Malo
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A DRAMA FILM
• AMÁLIA, music by Nuno Malo
• BLACK SWAN, music by Clint Mansell
• THE KARATE KID, music by James Horner
• THE KING’S SPEECH, music by Alexandre Desplat
• TRUE GRIT, music by Carter Burwell
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A COMEDY FILM
• THE LIGHTKEEPERS, music by Pinar Toprak
• LO, music by Scott Glasgow
• NANNY MCPHEE RETURNS, music by James Newton Howard
• POTICHE, music by Philippe Rombi
• VAMPIRES SUCK, music by Christopher Lennertz